Corn market looking at possible record crop

There’s good news and bad news staring the corn market and producers in the face. The good news is that the 2025 corn crop in the U.S. is looking very good at this point and could even be a record or near record crop. The bad news is that those prospects are putting pressure on prices.

“The corn market already thinks we have a record crop, and it might be true,” said Betsy Jensen, Northland Farm Business Management and a producer/marketer from Stephen, Minn.

“Corn conditions look good. Moisture is fine. We haven’t had any hot, dry weather. We’ve definitely had hot weather, but there’s been plenty of moisture to go with it. So, the market has kind of penciled in a record corn crop already, and they might be accurate. Time will tell, but the corn crop really looks amazing,” she added.

But with a big crop on the horizon, that’s pushing prices lower. Local prices in northwest Minnesota where Jensen is located were at $3.50 as of July 29. At one local elevator in west central Minnesota regularly followed in this column, as of July 29, the cash corn prices were listed at $3.66 for August delivery and basis was -27 cents under. The October 2025 corn futures price was listed at $4.13, and basis was -1 cent under.

“One of the things I always count on, and I’ve been wrong this year, is some kind of a weather scare, and that’s one thing this year we haven’t seen in the corn or the soybean market. It’s been pretty bland. There hasn’t been a big weather scare or something to spook the market, so it really looks like we have a pretty good-looking corn crop out there and prices are just very discouraging,” she said.

“Farmers are kind of stubborn. We’re not happy about selling at these prices. Some elevators have improved their basis for old crop, but you’re still looking at $3.50 cash. It’s not a good price,” she continued. “The only good news, and it’s not even that great of news, but there is some local demand for old crop corn, so farmers, if you do have old crop corn still in your bin, let your elevator know, let your grain buyers know and maybe they can help you out with a decent bid.”

But, overall, this year’s corn crop looks good, and so does demand.

“Demand is strong, so that might be one thing we can focus on later. But when we keep getting these crop condition reports that show a great looking crop, it’s really hard for the market to rally,” she said.

The demand is from all sectors, including exports, feed and food use, as well as ethanol.

“(Recently) we had like a record corn inspection number that came out, so there is corn leaving our ports. Overall, world corn demand is good,” she said, adding that demand from the livestock sector has also been strong.

“You only have to talk to a cattle producer who is grinning from ear to ear with their profits right now. They are more than happy to keep producing these cattle at these high prices. So, there is good demand for corn, but crop farmers have done their job and produced what appears to be a record crop,” she noted, adding that ethanol, too, is part of the increased demand for corn.

Jensen pointed out that on Aug. 12, USDA is expected to release its updated supply and demand report and that she doesn’t anticipate any changes to the demand numbers.

“It’s still pretty early in the (marketing) year for USDA to make tweaks for the new crop demand. They might bump up old crop demand though, and that’s ethanol, feed use, and exports. They might bump up those numbers, which then carry forward into this new crop because we’re not going to have as much carryover,” she explained. “So, Aug. 12 could give us good news from the demand side, but it’s probably going to be offset by the higher corn yields and higher corn production.”

As prospects of a good crop hover over the market, Jensen suggested producers look for marketing opportunities where they can, and one thing to consider is the possibility of storing their corn.

“The good news with corn is that there is a carry. Whenever we have these record crops it does pay to store the corn. And so, if you do have corn that you’re going to be harvesting and if you have the space to hold it, you are better off to put it in the bin and sell it for a future month. The problem is not everyone can store 100 percent of their corn crop,” she concluded.