Economics shape crop acreage

This year showed a surge in U.S. corn acreage as part of the annual shifts in acreage of different crops.

Purdue University ag economist Michael Langemeier says economics are the main driver in crop acre shifts from year to year. In particular, he says farmers in certain areas compare the bottom line for continuous corn versus rotating with soybeans.

“It’s really driven by how competitive continuous corn is, particularly in the western Corn Belt and northern Corn Belt,” Langemeier says.

He says farmers in Iowa, Nebraska and the Dakotas evaluate the returns of continuous corn and make their planting decisions.

“That’s certainly what was happening this spring,” Langemeier says. “The market was indicating it wanted more corn, and it’s getting more corn.”

He says in Iowa, the corn-to-soybean acre ratio is 1.3.

“It’s just a matter of are they going to plant more continuous corn or less continuous corn, and this year it’s more,” Langemeier says.

Long-range trends

Ohio State University ag economist Carl Zulauf says in addition to yearly returns, long-range trends play a role.

“Primarily what drives it is relative returns,” he says. “But there’s also long-term trends going on. It’s variation and a long-term trend.”

Zulauf says beginning in 1990, Farm Bill policy changed to allow more planting flexibility while still remaining eligible for federal programs.

“Since 1990, there has been a clear trend toward more corn, more soybeans and less wheat,” he says.

Zulauf says many farmers say they would like to plant more wheat, and they know the benefits of crop rotations, but he says all Extension budgets show corn and soybeans are more profitable than wheat most of the time.

In the eastern Corn Belt, including Indiana where Purdue is located, Langemeier says soybeans hold onto more acres, and are “relatively more profitable” in general compared to continuous corn. Many farmers just do a rotation of corn and soybeans.

“We don’t get as high of corn yields in Indiana as some other states,” he says.

Langemeier says since 2007, on average, the soybean-to-corn price ratio has been 2.4. But he says this spring it was lower, as corn stocks were lower and corn prices saw more support, leading to farmers planting more corn acres in 2025.

He also says concerns about trade and tariffs may have shifted some acres away from soybeans, which rely more on the export market.

In the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report this spring, corn acreage was up 5% from last year, and soybean acreage was down 4%.

The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate increased the expected U.S. corn acreage. The Aug. 12 WASDE report estimated the corn area planted at 97.3 million acres, up nearly 2 million acres from the July estimate, and far above 2024’s 90.6 million acres of corn planted.

In 2023, there were 94.6 million acres of corn planted.

The Aug. 12 WASDE report had soybean area planted at 80.9 million acres, down from 83.4 million in the July estimate. This compares to 87.1 million acres of soybeans planted in 2024 and 83.6 million acres of soybeans planted in 2023.

Wheat acreage planted in the August WASDE report was 45.4 million acres, compared to 46.1 million acres in 2024 and 49.6 million acres in 2023.

‘Big shift’

Langemeier says that big of an acreage estimate shift this far into the growing season is noteworthy.

“They shifted 2 million acres from soybeans into corn,” he says. “That’s a big shift.”

Zulauf says an old adage from his 50-plus years as an ag economist is that “farmers love to plant corn,” and he says they often seem to plant a little more than expected if conditions allow, which can explain some of the shift.

“A lot of farmers just like to plant and grow and harvest corn,” Zulauf says. “If the weather cooperates, and you have good planting conditions early, farmers will tend to throw in a few more acres of corn.”

He says planted acres in the U.S. are essentially at their maximum, so more acres of one crop have to come from the acreage of another crop.

Langemeier says with this year’s large corn crop, there could likely be a shift back towards more soybean acres and more balance with corn acreage.

“You could easily see next year a 3- to 4-million-acre shift, and if you see a 3- to 4-million-acre shift, we’d be more typical,” he says.

Crop differences

Corn and soybeans also have different characteristics, Langemeier says. While both crops have a gradually climbing trendline yield, soybeans are generally more consistent while corn is more weather-dependent. But it also can have massive yields in the right conditions.

“Soybeans are not nearly as volatile,” he says. “That’s a plus and a minus. They’re more resilient. The downside is, they don’t hit a home run like corn does in a big year.”

Input costs also factor into crop decisions, and Langemeier says corn input costs shot up in the years right after COVID hit. However, those costs have moderated somewhat in the last couple of years.