Lack of new crop soybean export sales into China could become more important

Sean Lusk at Walsh Trading said, “From a demand perspective there is worry that a lack of new crop soybean export sales into China could be becoming more important as China has zero new crop soybean bushels on the books for the 2025/26 marketing year (starting September 1). Even new crop sales to unknown destinations are at a 5 year low for this week in the year. Several other countries now use the alias of "unknown" now as well. Speculative money continues to liquidate the Oil Share position (long bean oil, short meal) it has held since mid-June. Share is now 3% off its highs of 51.6% and is nearing 30-day lows. Further erosion in carbon policy has put a cloud over the EPA’s biofuel mandate, yet it remains unchanged. US basis continues to attract non-Asia business with spot offers at an 80 to 90 cents per bushel discount to Brazil. We are still supply-side driven, and the bean crop is far from finished. With August the pivotal month for soybeans. They can pod and rebloom multiple times and recover or decline based on the weather the next 30 days.”