Markets await August crop yield estimates

Many are focused on is trying to determine how big is big for the upcoming crop, said Don Roose at U.S. Commodities. Estimates will be coming out prior to the USDA’s Aug. 12 report.

“The August report will give a more accurate reading from test plots the government has,” Roose said. “The yields were bigger than the final amount we ended up with last year.”

The competition from Brazil is in full swing, Roose said, while domestic producers are clearing out their bins to prepare for harvest.

“The advantage for the producers is that there are big carries in the market due to big crops,” he said.

When it comes to the corn crop, yield estimates above 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard, Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group said.

Demand for corn in world markets remains strong, he added.

Roose said the wheat market might be telling the future as it went down. It has moved down to rangebound trade at the bottom, he said.

“Wheat has just reached a level where end users are willing to buy it,” Roose said. “However, end users with big enough supplies won’t chase it.”

Scoville said harvest conditions for winter wheat appear to be good in the United States, and spring wheat development is good as well.

“Ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling,” he said.

Roose said the elephant in the room is tariffs and what they will do to the ag sector.

“We have framework deals, but nothing focused solidly on ag,” Roose said. “The market doesn’t like uncertainty.”

When it comes to buying soybeans, China is still not buying from the United States.

“Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons,” Scoville said. “As a result of this, export demand remains less for U.S. soybeans. “