Soybean crop looking good, prices leave a little to be desired

The 2025 soybean crop in the U.S. is looking good. It won’t be a record crop, but that’s largely because fewer acres were planted this year. Soybean prices leave a little to be desired, however.

“Soybeans just make me want to cry,” said Betsy Jensen, Northland Farm Business Management and a producer/marketer from Stephen, Minn. “When we did our cash flows this year we had $10 cash beans, which did not seem that far off. And now we’re looking at our local prices at $9.10 to $9.11.

“The crop looks great, and crop conditions overall are amazing. My local crop looks great, but it is not worth anything,” she added.

Looking at local prices, at one elevator in west central Minnesota regularly followed in this column, as of July 29, cash soybean prices for August delivery were posted at $9.41 and basis was -70 cents under. The December 2025 futures price was $10.29, and basis was -1 cent under.

“Part of the concern up here too is that our basis is very poor. They do not want soybeans delivered at harvest,” she said. “Soybeans have kind of been the one thing we’ve been able to deliver at harvest. But the soybean market is so goofy right now.

“We have a carrying charge in it and the market really wants us to put the soybeans in the bin, which isn’t a signal we get very often. There aren’t very many years where we have a signal to store our soybeans,” she added.

“For example, March futures are 36 cents higher than November futures, so you get 36 cents in the futures market to store the beans, plus you’re probably looking at 30 cents for a basis improvement, as well,” she continued. “So, if you can store soybeans, you should do it. I don’t know how many times I have said we should store soybeans. That does not come out of my mouth very often.”

One bit of good news with soybeans is that there is decent demand, though not as good as corn. Corn, Jensen noted, seems a little bit more stable for demand while soybeans are a little bit more unstable.

“Of course, part of that has to do with the amount of soybeans that we export, and the kind of trade uncertainty that we have right now,” she said.

Part of that uncertainty is because President Trump was expected to announce a new round of tariffs on Aug. 1. (This article was written prior to Aug. 1.) But Jensen was holding her breath on whether or not the new tariffs would be announced and/or implemented.

“I will admit, I have tariff fatigue, and I think that a lot of traders have tariff fatigue, as well,” she said. “When it first came out everyone was following every daily announcement. (But) it is not top headline of the Wall Street Journal anymore. It is not the top headline of market commentary.

“I personally have tariff fatigue, and I feel like the market does too. Maybe I’m naive, but I’m going to say I’m not that nervous for Friday,” she added. “We shall see.”

Jensen said she’s interested to see how things settle out, but the tariff fatigue is a real issue at this time, and part of it is why she thinks the basis is so poor.

“Are we going to be able to ship soybeans? Is anyone going to be there to buy it? Soybean buyers are a little bit nervous about that,” she said. “We usually don’t see this poor of a basis at harvest. We’re a dollar under right now, which has happened (before), but this is very poor for a basis.”